Recession casts shadow on economy, says study

Notes that Kerala is more vulnerable to external shock

---

Recession may hit job opportunities

Further cut in oil prices may have negative impact

---

Reduction in oil price and sustained low-level reduced investments in Gulf countries can have a negative impact on the job opportunities as well as the income of Non-Resident Keralites (NoRKs).

According to a study conducted by the Centre for Development Studies (CDS) on the impact of the economic recession in the State, Kerala is more vulnerable to any external shock, including the slowdown since it is integrated with the rest of the world.

In spite of the liquidity concerns about the banking sector of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, the economies of the seven Gulf countries, where majority of the NoRKs are located, continue to remain unaffected owing to the steps taken for improving the liquidity position.

But further reduction in oil price and investments can have a negative impact on the job opportunities and their income., the study says.

About 32,000 people employed in the coir industry are likely to lose jobs owing to 20 per cent decline in coir exports. The job loss in the cashew sector has been estimated at around 18,000 due to 15 per cent fall in exports and imports becoming costlier. Marine exports may go down by 25 to 30 per cent to all major destinations except South East Asia. In the short run, a one-third fall in exports can lead to a loss of 20,000 jobs in the sector.

Handloom units have reported 20 per cent dip in sales. A short-term reduction in export by 15 to 20 per cent is expected in handloom goods and that may further increase if the recession prolongs. The value and quantity of pepper export have come down by 50 per cent between September 2008 and the same month last year. The price of rubber has registered a 40 per decline due to the fall in demand from the tyre industry.

The major software export companies are yet to feel the pinch of the crisis but IT and ITES companies at the national level expect 50 per cent reduction in growth rate. The companies in the State have not yet got a full exposure to the crisis due to their relatively lesser engagement with financial services.

Being a consumer State, Kerala can benefit from the reduction in prices of oil, steel, cement and such others as it will also reflect in the cost of manufactured goods too. The growth rate of the State’s economy may decrease by 2 to 3 per cent and it can also lead to an increase in revenue deficit, the study says.

Young, rich and powerful

Today’s young are earning well. Is money power giving them a freedom to go wrong ?

MONEYWISE The youth of today are focussed and responsible

They breeze out of swanky suites and opulent cabins. With fat pay packets tucked in they have the world in their pockets. Life for them is flushed with comforts and privileges. Yet they are not experienced CEOs or corporate veterans. They are all but in their mid-twenties. These young Turks are an emerging new brand on the horizon today.

Exuding confidence and loaded with fresh ideas, facts and a never-say-die attitude they have added a new dimension to our perception of youth.

Certain sections of the older generation are apprehensive that the youth being vulnerable may be corrupted with too much power and money in hand. Won’t it spoil them? Miriam Alexander a mother of two youths says, “youth today are sensible but their minds are easily influenced and too much of money at a young age can make them spendthrifts and reckless if they are not careful.”

Lifestyle

However, a chat with today’s young go-getters reassures and restores our confidence. They assure that money may have changed their lifestyles but not them.

Mithun Vazhiyil, 25, Financial Co-ordinator of Ernst & Young GSS feels upbringing and family values does play a role. He says, “the money I earn is through my hard effort. Besides I have been brought up to realise the value of everything. So I can never be a spendthrift. I spend money only on things worthwhile. I do investments . I also plan to do a course for which I am saving. Besides, I also buy gifts for my parents and loved one and that’s when I feel most happy and blessed.”

Youth thus cannot be generalised as irresponsible. They are in control as long as they are equipped with family values. Fat pay packets are not always splurged. They are invested wisely and spent on things meaningful.

Vrindha Surendran, 23, Software Engineer of Sathaym Computers projects a more realistic picture. She feels that though upbringing may play a major role, character, attitude and sense of discrimination are essential. She says, “initially there may be a tendency to overspend especially from those of the lower strata when they see too much money at their disposal. But it’s often only a temporary phase among those with discriminating power. One very soon learns from experience and start to invest money wisely.”

Money thus need not be a fear factor for parents with intelligent children who can discriminate the superfluous from the real. Yet, today when the world is increasingly caught up by consumerism -where cell phones are purchased and exchanged every month as newer models are pumped in, it is hard to determine or draw a line.

Consumerism

Twenty-five year old Alok Pandey, Social Anthropologist with the Ministry of Social Justice says, “the 21st century is living in another economic environment. So it is difficult to generalise the behavioural traits of youth. There has always been a conflict of ideas, values and interests between the generations. And huge pay packets and consumerism may have brought more strains in relationships. However, the younger generation too has commitments. So the accusation that youth cannot be trusted with too much money may not go down well with the present generation.”

The younger and the older generation shall thus never see eye-to-eye. So what the youth calls for today is a broader outlook and faith. “Why should money be always viewed as something evil,” retorts Varsha Arun, 26, Software Engineer with Tata Consultancy Services, “money can also bring about many positive changes in one’s life. It can add

quality to our lives. It enables us to save, pursue hobbies and passions like travelling; joining new courses etc that make us grow as a person.

And this is how we utilise our salary. Today’s youth being level headed and aware know where to draw the line. Anybody can fall a victim of consumerism. So the fears of the older generation that youngsters can go astray with too much money are certainly exaggerated.”

The youth thus today are focussed .They know what they want, they work hard at it and they get it. Theirs is a relentless drive to show the world who they are and what they are capable of. And one cannot overlook them. For youth power is here to stay.